Game 18

Esther starts, and finds IMPLORE fairly promptly. I feel a tremor of frustration, having suffered three losses in a row and (frankly) expecting to get an easier game after David, Naween and Edward. My rack CEEEIKN suggests PECKE, but as I have a slight doubt over its validity I go for CLEEK instead. Probably should have chosen EKE for 19 instead, but I wanted to keep the board as open as possible (in order to engineer a possible comeback), so parallel plays didn’t really figure. PECKE is fine, and sims about five points better than CLEEK. Esther responds with SUNBEA(M)S for 74 which PECKE would have blocked (but she had UNBIASES anyway, and also SUBPENAS if I had played elsewhere). I now have DEEILNU and am glad to see that UNDERLIE plays, giving a glimmer of hope. But Esther keeps piling on the score with ZANTE for a 123-point lead:

   A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O      
   ------------------------------  Andrew     EIILMRV   83  
 1|=     '       Z       '     =|  Esther	       206	
 2|  - S     "   A   "       -  | 
 3|    U       ' N '       -    | 
 4|'   N -     U T       -     '|
 5|    B   -   N E     -        |
 6|  " E     " D     "       "  |
 7|    A   C   E   '       '    |
 8|= I M P L O R E       '     =|
 9|    S   E   L   '       '    |
10|  "     E " I     "       "  |
11|        K   E       -        |
12|'     -       '       -     '|
13|    -       '   '       -    |
14|  -       "       "       -  |
15|=     '       =       '     =|
   ------------------------------

Fortunately there is still a strong response on offer, MINEVER for 48. Esther has an X-play for 28, and I am glad to have snared the blank to accompany ILOTTY. There are three different bingos available, TONALITY, TOTALITY and TOILETRY, and the simulation indicates the latter is marginally best (by about one equity point). But I go for TOTALITY, and Esther pounces on the juicy hook available with FOIN/FY for 45.

Unfortunately my next rack is good, apart from one letter: EEIPQRS indicates a Q-dump, and the best available is QI/IS at B1. Esther has a 30-point Y play, and now I have to weigh up whether to score, or to keep massaging the rack in hope of a bingo:

   A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O 
   ------------------------------  Andrew  EEEPRRS   221 
 1|= Q   '       Z       F O I N|  Esther            309
 2|  I S   T O T A L I t Y   -  | 
 3|    U       ' N '       -    |
 4|'   N -     U T       -     '|
 5|  O B   M I N E V E R        |
 6|  Y E     " D     "       "  |
 7|    A   C   E   '       '    |
 8|= I M P L O R E       '     =|
 9|    S   E   L   '       '    |
10|  "     E " I F   "       "  |
11|        K   E A     -        |
12|'     -       X       -     '|
13|    -       '   '       -    |
14|  -       "       "       -  |
15|=     '       =       '     =|
   ------------------------------

Main choices that I saw were PEERS (or variants) at 12A for 32, or disposing of ER, EER or EPR somehow. This could be achieved by hooking to make IMPLORER, with moves like VEER, PRE or even just RE, but I felt these were too anaemic. I went for PEERS, hoping to snare the second blank in my five-tile pickup, but the simulation shows that IMPLORER plays are a few points better (PRE/IMPLORER shows up as best, about five points clear of PEERS on an equity basis). After Esther’s VAPOUR, my rack is the depressing AEIORRT. Here’s where I made a silly mistake, reminiscent of my misplay against Ganesh in the 2005 WSC: instead of the intended RIA/EAR/XI, I laid down RAI and hit the clock. Clearly XA is not yet a permissible word, so the play was challenged off. Even the best plays here (apparently ORA/IMPLORER) only have a 5% winning chance, but I managed to reduce that still further. Who knows, perhaps my general state of irritated stultification had an impact which led to this misplay, but perhaps I should compare the Ganesh game more closely (another one in which I had a huge deficit and was reduced to impotence). Esther then plays HECH round the E of PEERS, and this time I manage to play RIA correctly.

Now it is Esther’s turn to stumble, with a putative 105-point SWOUNDs/HECHS. HECH is only an interjection and doesn’t take the S, so I take the opportunity to remove the play while also noting that there are no good tiles left in the bag. I make sure to challenge both words so that Esther might have a doubt as to which is invalid, and this gives me a tiny chance of a comeback. HECH takes a T, so with my dull rack of AAEORTT I wanted to avoid plays in that area, play a couple of tiles, and hopefully follow up with a T-bingo, pray for Esther to refuse SWOUNDS, and then to pick another bingo as an outplay (realistically my only shot).

   A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O  
   ------------------------------  Andrew   AAEORTT   269 
 1|= Q   '       Z       F O I N|  Esther   DNOSUW?   366
 2|  I S   T O T A L I t Y   -  | 
 3|    U       ' N '       -    |
 4|'   N -     U T       -     '|
 5|  O B   M I N E V E R        |
 6|  Y E     " D     "       "  |
 7|    A   C   E   '       '    |
 8|= I M P L O R E       '     =|
 9|    S   E   L   '       '    |
10|V "     E " I F   "       "  |
11|A   H   K   E A R   -        |
12|P E E R S     X I     -     '|
13|O   C       '   A       -    |
14|U - H     "       "       -  |
15|R     '       =       '     =|
   ------------------------------

So I went for TAO/TE at 4J for a meagre ten points. The simulation gives TOTARA/HECHT or TERATA/HECHT a higher equity value (by about nine points) but these are guaranteed losses whatever Quackle says. Esther makes no mistake this time, with SWOUNDS/RIAS for 90, and my consolation rack AGELNRT gives TRANGLES onto the S for 77.After her DEAW, my JOBING and her AIT, the score is 491 to Esther and 384 to me.

   A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O   
   ------------------------------  
 1|= Q   '       Z       F O I N| 
 2|  I S   T O T A L I t Y   -  | 
 3|    U       ' N '       -    |
 4|'   N -     U T   T A O     '|
 5|  O B   M I N E V E R   A I T|
 6|  Y E     " D     D E A W "  |
 7|    A   C   E   '       '   T|
 8|= I M P L O R E       '     R|
 9|    S   E   L   '       '   A|
10|V "     E " I F   "     J " N|
11|A   H   K   E A R   -   O   G|
12|P E E R S     X I     - B   L|
13|O   C       '   A       I   E|
14|U - H     "     S W O U N D s|
15|R     '       =       ' G   =|
   ------------------------------

Equity loss would have been about 25 but for the RAI/RIA mixup, which is tough to quantify (and the game was, let’s face it, lost at that point). But apart from that I played OK.

Game 17 vs David Eldar

With me to play, opening rack was the intriguing AEEHLNU. Maximal score is 20 with UNHEAL or UNHELE (but placement is problematic in itself), or one could play a short opener and go for a tolerably balanced leave (e.g. HUE leaving AELN). In the end I went for a middle road with LEHUA 8D, scoring 18 and leaving EN which I think is preferable to AELN. The simulation thinks UNHEAL is better by about four points.

HUE might have been better after all in this case, because David can now respond with AREOLOGY around the L. But fortunately I have drawn AELPS to accompany my EN leave, and can slot ALPEENS or SPELEAN in a couple of places. Having identified the bingos before David’s play, I should have paused to think about the floaters: using the R for REPANELS would have netted 11 more points. But once I had noticed that ALPEENS played alongside the first four tiles of AREOLOGY I was sucked into playing that – an equity loss of a drastic 15 points. David comes back with AX/XU for 39 and my new rack is DFIOPQZ:

   A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O  Andrew  DFIOPQZ   97  
   ------------------------------ David            113 
 1|=   A '       =       '     =| 
 2|  - L     "       "       -  | 
 3|    P       '   '       -    | 
 4|'   E A       '       -     '|
 5|    E R -           -        |
 6|  " N E   "       "       "  |
 7|    S O   A X   '       '    |
 8|=     L E H U A       '     =|
 9|    ' O     '   '       '    |
10|  "   G   "       "       "  |
11|      Y -           -        |
12|'     -       '       -     '|
13|    -       '   '       -    |
14|  -       "       "       -  |
15|=     '       =       '     =|
   ------------------------------

Whoops…DIAZO is best, but I completely overlook it and go for ZOA instead. I was thinking of FLIP/OF as a possible followup. A nasty 42-point equity loss, and I am royally punished for it as the game progresses. David can’t make much headway for a couple of moves, but with BDIIFPQ I am reduced to accepting my fallback FLIP, then changing all seven of BDDIOQT (Quackle concurs) only to pick up the unhelpful BEGIORW. I plump for OWRIE/OP (though BEWIG hooking the G to make AGOG would have been superior), ending up with BEGHMST. And that E is one of the last vowels I see in the game: next few racks are the delightful DGMMSST, DEKMRST, JMORRRT, CDNRRTT and DNRSTTV. Meanwhile David has forged ahead with POINDED and a final move FLATTERS to win comfortably 451-372 (not sure how I got that many, but there were some handy vowels here and there which were just helpful enough to prevent me from changing again, including JORUM for 44).

Clearly I played quite badly in this game with about 70 equity loss, but those kinds of racks won’t allow anyone to score against the might of Eldar